The Abundance Story

Forage Fish and the Health of the Fishery

Historical Abundance and Fishing Practices

Sixty years ago, a friend of mine, then just eight years old, managed to catch a 24-pound cod from the west wall in Pt. Judith. His father taught him how to fish, starting with snagging a pogie (menhaden), cutting it into three pieces, and using it for bait. Once the bait was gone, he would simply catch another pogie to continue fishing.

Another man, reflecting on his childhood in Newport, shared how he earned spending money by snagging pogies and selling them as bait to local fishermen. During those times, menhaden were plentiful, and the harbor at Galilee even housed a menhaden reduction factory. Cod, whiting, and pollock were easily caught from shore. There is no physical reason why the fishery cannot be restored to its previous level of abundance.

The Importance of Forage Fish

A healthy fishery relies on an abundance of forage fish. Whether you describe it as a plethora, a gazillion, or beau coup, there must be enough to sustain the ecosystem. The marine carrying capacity—the number of fish that can survive—is determined by food, water, and shelter, with food being the most critical factor. Water is abundant, but shelter can be compromised by trawlers and draggers disturbing the ocean floor. Harvesting forage fish reduces the potential yield of the fishery, as the energy that sustains the food chain originates solely from the sun. Forage fish, near the bottom of the food chain, are essential; their removal permanently drains energy from the system, similar to how a car engine loses power when energy is diverted.

Menhaden, a key forage fish, produce the greatest catch weight on the east coast. In 2025, approximately 233,000 metric tons were harvested, with 150,000 metric tons sent to a reduction factory in Reedville, VA. This Canadian-owned factory manufactures fish meal, fish oil, and fish food for salmon farms in Nova Scotia, draining the fishery and diminishing the output of more valuable fish species.

Fish Reproduction and Recruitment

Fish survive by producing overwhelming numbers of eggs. For example, a female alewife can lay hundreds of thousands of eggs, but on average, only seventeen reach the ocean. From the moment eggs are laid, they face constant predation as eggs, larvae, and juveniles. Those that survive and enter the fishery are referred to as recruits.

Protective Role of Forage Fish

An abundance of forage fish safeguards other species. Fish are opportunistic feeders; when forage fish are plentiful, they consume them in large numbers. If the supply dwindles, fish will randomly turn to other available food, such as juveniles and larvae of different fish species. The current low recruitment seen in many species is likely due to the scarcity of forage fish. The scoping document for Amendment 10 to the Atlantic Herring Regulations attributes population declines to low recruitment—a trend ongoing for decades—without fully understanding the cause. Despite this, the document asserts, “Over-fishing is not occurring.”

Nutritional Benefits of Forage Fish

Forage fish such as menhaden, herring, and mackerel are rich in lipids and provide substantial nutrition. Well-nourished female fish produce more eggs, both per individual and per pound body weight, compared to those feeding on less nourishing food like squid or crustaceans (aka junk food). Lipids provide energy for gonad growth and essential fatty acids that are incorporated into egg yolk for embryo development. Populations weakened by poor nutrition can recover if forage fish become abundant again, enabling greater egg production and improved survival rates for juveniles.

Ecological Reference Points and Prey Switching

A video discusses Ecological Reference Points for Menhaden (link), featuring a fisheries biologist who explains “Prey Switching.” If menhaden are unavailable, predator fish may switch to alternatives, such as Atlantic herring. There appears to be a correlation between prey switching and population changes, as predicted by the opportunistic feeding habits of fish. It is notable that Atlantic herring populations have collapsed by 95%, possibly as a result of prey switching.

Recent Observations and Signs of Declining Forage Fish

At the October 2025 ASMFC meeting, attendees reported increased predation on striped bass by spiny dogfish. Fishermen have also observed a rise in shark attacks. Alongside low recruitment, these are indicators of a significant problem stemming from a severely diminished population of forage fish.

Evidence of Forage Fish Decline

  1. To meet quotas for the reduction factory—which is Canadian-owned—peanut bunker (juvenile menhaden, less than one year old) are being harvested in Chesapeake Bay. Fishers are also traveling nearly 200 miles to fish off the coast of New Jersey.
  2. Atlantic herring populations, another key forage fish, have fallen to about 4% of their 1998 levels.
  3. For many years, Atlantic herring were used as bait for lobster. In the early 2020s, herring prices soared, prompting the Secretary of Commerce to declare a disaster and provide relief money to lobstermen. Despite this, no effective solution was implemented. The allowable catch for herring is now so low that the fishery is essentially nonexistent, forcing lobstermen to switch to menhaden for bait.

Conclusion: It’s all about nutrition!

Menhaden, herring, and mackerel are essential to the Atlantic fishery food web, but their populations are near historic lows. The ecosystem’s carrying capacity depends not only on food abundance but on food quality; these fish offer high nutrition due to their lipid content. When they’re scarce, predator fish switch to less nutritious options like squid, crustaceans, and worms, which impacts their reproductive rates.(link) Closing the Atlantic fishery to menhaden harvest could return over 110,000 metric tons of menhaden in the first year, increasing food for predators and allowing menhaden numbers and age to increase, boosting female fecundity over time. Each year the spawning stock will be larger and older, producing more eggs and more young and feeding a growing predatory fish population. The predatory pressure on herring and mackerel, also high lipid fish, will be reduced and their populations will rebuild, aiding in the feeding of the growing predatory fish population.