According to Grok

The price of bait is too high! Scarcity of a product drives price. There is an overall scarcity of bait-menhaden, herring and mackerel. The 20% cut in TAC approved at last year’s Menhaden Board meeting does not help anyone. It will drive up the price of bait even more and is not enough to stop the decline in the menhaden population.  There is a solution, which was suggested in the public comments, (link, p.9) by Paul Eidman, charter captain and founder of menhaden defenders. Briefly, it is as follows: Set a TAC of 75,616 metric tons, allocated 100% to the bait fishery, 0% to the reduction fishery, and ban harvesting of menhaden for reduction purposes. But we don’t have to worry about this issue right now. Right now, I would like to talk about menhaden and the science.

I listened to the October 2025 menhaden board meeting and I downloaded the comments from the public and the meeting transcript. In addition to Paul Eidman’s comment that I mentioned above, there were several from ME fishermen who spoke about the abundance of menhaden in ME.  I sent out an email to several of them and got a nice letter (link) from Kimberly Matthews who told about her spotter pilot could go out 30 miles and still see schools of menhaden. I shared this with Fred Akers of NJ, and he did an AI investigation in which he asked if the menhaden expansion was a result of the 2021 implementation of catch limits. The answer was positive. So gave it a try. I used Grok 4 because that is supposed to be the most technical and science related system. I also got a positive answer. So then I asked what would be the impact of Paul Eidman’s solution, mentioned above, and this was very positive. The questions are all included below, with links to the answers and references. Towards the end, I asked, “Studies of cod show they have low length at age, weigh at age, fecundity, and recruitment. In addition, their forage base has a lot of low lipid components like invertebrates and crustaceans. Could they be related and would more high lipid forage fish such as herring, mackerel and menhaden help?” And got a very positive response but there is an issue with warming water temperature. I then asked a couple more questions about if a healthy, robust population could better tolerate or adjust to the warming water temperature and the answers were encouraging. I would be very interested in your opinion of what Grok came up with.

If the ME fishermen are correct, and there are an abundance of menhaden, then we should start to see results in the cod populations. And they also have restored the alewives in the rivers in ME, so cod might be seen when the alewives go up to spawn in the spring or when the young alewives come down in the fall. Maine could be the birthplace of the restoration of the Atlantic fishery.

Gulf of Maine Menhaden. Question 1: Did imposition of catch limits for menhaden in 2012 influence the expansion of menhaden northward?(link)

Impact of TAK reduction. Question 2: What will be the impact to the Atlantic fishery if the menhaden reduction fishery is closed, leaving 150000 metric tons a year of menhaden in the ocean.(link)

Importance of lipids: Question 3: What are the advantages of fish feeding on high lipid forage fish such as herring, mackerel and menhaden compared with feeding on invertebrates and crustaceans? (link)

Lipids/Fecundity: Question 4: What does a diet of high lipid forage fish do to a female fish’s fecundity compared to a diet of invertebrates and crustaceans? (link)

Cod: Question 5: Studies of cod show they have low length at age, weigh at age, fecundity, and recruitment. In addition, their forage base has a lot of low lipid components like invertebrates and crustaceans. Could they be related and would more high lipid forage fish like herring, mackerel and menhaden help? (link)

Cod and Alewives: QUESTION 6: I have heard that there might be a correlation between cod and alewives, that cod might gather at the mouths of rivers for juvenile alewives, and they fatten up on them prior to spawning? is there anything to that story? (link)

Cod and Climate Change: Question 7: The current US Atlantic Cod population demonstrates low weight at age, low length at age, low fecundity and low recruitment. This is believed to be caused by a diet that is low in lipids. The solution is to reduce harvesting of high lipid forage fish menhaden, herring and mackerel. Will the improved diet over time improve their ability to tolerate any increase in water temperature? (link)

Question 8: To follow up on the previous question, would a healthy, well-nourished fish population have a better chance of adapting to small changes in temperature over time? (link)