Has there ever been and food web analysis, like Wisconsin Bioenergetics or EwE that modeled the collapse of the Atlantic herring population in 1980 followed by the cod collapse in the 1990’s and specifically took into consideration the loss of the high lipid’s effect on cod biology, or anything close?
No exact match exists for a full food web analysis (EwE or Wisconsin Bioenergetics) that specifically models an Atlantic herring collapse around 1980 → loss of high-lipid prey → effects on cod biology → contribution to the 1990s cod collapse. (LINK)
Key relevant analyses
Baltic Sea EwE and related food-web models (1970s–2000s) are the closest ecosystem-scale reconstructions.
– Harvey et al. (and related work) used EwE to model the Baltic Sea proper from ~1974–2000, reproducing MSVPA biomass trajectories for cod, herring, and sprat. Cod showed top-down control on sprat but weaker effects on herring; fishing, oceanographic conditions (e.g., salinity), and recruitment variability were major drivers. The models capture the late-1970s/early-1980s cod peak (“gadoid outburst”), subsequent decline, and early-1990s collapse alongside herring decline and sprat increase. (LINK) (LINK)
– Other Baltic/Western Baltic models explore regime shifts, fishing scenarios, and interactions among cod–herring–sprat. They document herring declines concurrent with cod changes but do not isolate a discrete ~1980 herring collapse as the primary lipid-mediated driver of later cod collapse. Condition and energy-reserve declines in Baltic cod have been linked in empirical work to diet shifts (including less herring) plus hypoxia and temperature, but these are not fully embedded as mechanistic lipid effects inside the classic EwE runs. (LINK) (LINK)
North Sea herring collapse (1970s) is well-documented as recruitment overfishing leading to SSB drop from millions of tonnes to very low levels by the mid-1970s, followed by a fishing ban and recovery. Multispecies models (MSVPA, SMS, EwE) examine trophodynamic effects of the large biomass reduction, but published applications do not center on a sequential lipid-quality pathway into a 1990s cod collapse. (LINK)
Wisconsin-style / bioenergetics models emphasizing lipids come closest on the specific “high-lipid effect on cod biology” mechanism:
– van Deurs et al. (2022) developed a dynamic state-dependent bioenergetics model (built on the Wisconsin framework) for reproductive Atlantic cod facing seasonal fluxes of lipid-rich herring (vs. leaner benthic prey such as shore crabs). It shows that optimal lipid:protein energy ratios for cod are roughly 0.5–0.7, that lipids provide protein-sparing and energy-storage benefits critical for gonad development and survival, and that reducing herring lipid content or availability forces riskier foraging and lowers survival probability. Field fatty-acid markers supported the model (cod lipid stores peaked after herring arrival). This directly addresses the lipid-quality mechanism, though in a contemporary local setting (Øresund) rather than a historical collapse sequence. (LINK)
– Broader bioenergetics and energy-density studies treat Atlantic/Pacific herring as high-energy forage (often 5–10+ kJ g⁻¹ wet weight, strongly seasonal) and quantify effects of prey energy density on cod consumption, growth efficiency, and condition. Herring energy density is routinely used as a key input parameter. (LINK)
Summary of proximity
– Ecosystem models (especially Baltic EwE) reconstruct concurrent herring and cod dynamics across the relevant decades and include both species as interacting groups.
– Bioenergetics models (especially the Wisconsin-based van Deurs work) explicitly quantify how loss or reduction of high-lipid herring affects cod energy allocation, condition, foraging, and reproductive potential.
– No published analysis appears to chain a discrete Atlantic herring collapse ~1980 through a quantified lipid/energy-density effect on cod biology as a primary driver of the 1990s cod collapse inside a single integrated EwE or full bioenergetics food-web framework. Capelin–cod interactions (especially Newfoundland) and general clupeid–cod dynamics receive comparable or greater attention for condition and recovery effects in some regions.
If you have a specific region (Baltic, North Sea, Northwest Atlantic, etc.) or want deeper details on any of the cited models, I can dig further.