AI, Lipids, and the Future of the Atlantic Fishery

Thanks to AI, there are important new reasons for hope in the Atlantic fishery. The key issue is the role of high-lipid forage fish—such as Atlantic herring, river herring, menhaden, mackerel, and capelin—in supporting healthy predator fish populations.

Background: The Herring Collapse

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Magnuson-Stevens Act, which extended U.S. control of ocean waters from 12 nautical miles to 200 nautical miles offshore. Before that, these waters were heavily fished by foreign fleets, including large Soviet fleets.

One of the most damaging losses was Atlantic herring. By 1980, the population had collapsed after intense fishing pressure. Because herring are central to the Atlantic food web, their decline appears to have weakened the ecosystem and contributed to continuing problems for predator fish.

The Missing Biology: Lipids

The biology that had been overlooked involves lipids—fats, oils, and waxes. High-lipid forage fish can contain roughly twice the caloric value of lower-lipid prey such as crustaceans, invertebrates, and juvenile fish.

A diet rich in high-lipid fish can improve predator fish growth, increase egg production, produce larger eggs with more lipid reserves, and improve the survival chances of larvae and juveniles.

How AI Helped Connect the Evidence

I began using AI in March, including Grok, to better understand why cod in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank show low weight and length at age, low fecundity, and low recruitment. I also noted that their diet had shifted toward crustaceans and invertebrates after the herring collapse.

Grok helped connect these symptoms with research from aquaculture studies in Alabama (link), India (link), and Malaysia (link). In aquaculture, fish diets can be tested under controlled conditions, making it easier to see how lipid levels affect growth, reproduction, and survival.

A Second Opportunity: Alternative Lipid Sources

The aquaculture industry has long relied on fish oil and fish meal from the menhaden reduction fishery. As aquaculture grows, companies are looking for alternative lipid sources, including algae grown in ponds and genetically modified soybeans and canola.

If these alternatives succeed, they could reduce pressure on wild forage fish while supporting aquaculture, recreational fishing, and commercial fishing. This could create a future in which no one has to lose.

Why This Matters

This lipid-based explanation may help explain why management systems have struggled for many years with piscivores—fish that eat other fish. Planktivores, which feed on plankton, and benthivores, which feed near the bottom, have different food sources and may not be affected in the same way.

Other research has pointed in a similar direction. A study of captive Steller sea lions found that sea lions did well on herring but lost weight after switching to pollock, leading to the “junk food hypothesis” (link). Another report extended this idea to seabirds, marine mammals, and fish (link).

I believe this science is important, well supported by controlled testing, and highly relevant to the fishing community. AI helped uncover and connect that information, and I encourage others to explore these tools as well.